Have you ever watched a stock soar to new heights, only to wonder when the inevitable reversal or correction, titled “How To Accurately Predict A Reversal,” will occur? In stock trading, the allure of accurately predicting reversals and profiting from them is a skill many traders strive to master. This article delves into a counter-trend strategy that aims to predict stock reversals and outlines a specific trading approach to take advantage of them.

Using Bollinger Bands for Reversal Prediction

Reversals often occur when a stock trending upwards experiences a sudden dip or correction. One way to predict these reversals is by utilizing technical indicators, such as Bollinger Bands. These bands consist of three lines: the middle line representing a 200-period moving average and two outer lines indicating 2.5 standard deviations from the middle line. These outer lines establish a range within which the price should ideally stay. A break above or below these lines can signal a potential reversal.

For instance, if a stock’s price breaks above the upper outer line, it might indicate an overextended bullish run and an impending pullback. Similarly, if the price breaks below the lower outer line, it might suggest an extended bearish trend and a potential rebound.

Counter Trend Trading Strategy: Call Credit Spread

To capitalize on predicted reversals, traders can employ a counter-trend trading strategy, specifically a “Call Credit Spread.” This strategy involves trading against the prevailing trend. Here’s how it works:

1. Identify Strong Trend: Wait for a strong candle in the direction of the trend, indicating a potential reversal.
2. Entry Point: When the price breaks beyond one of the outer Bollinger Bands, consider initiating the trade.
3. Option Selection: Choose a call credit spread option. This involves going as far out of the money as possible while collecting around 15 to 20 cents on a one-dollar-wide spread.
4. Time Frame: Select an expiration date for the option around two to three weeks away.
5. Trade Execution: If the stock stays below the chosen level (the outer line), the trade generates profit due to time decay. The strategy works by taking advantage of the natural slowing down of an overextended price movement.

Implementation of the Counter Trend Strategy

Implementing the counter-trend strategy involves carefully watching the stock’s price behaviour and the Bollinger Bands. For upward countertrend trades, wait for the stock to drop below the outer Bollinger Band and then observe for signs of reversal, such as a doji candle or a clear indication of the price starting to move upward again. Similarly, for downward countertrend trades, wait for the stock’s price to break above the upper Bollinger Band, then monitor for signs of a reversal.

Key Points and Conclusion

• Risk Consideration: Counter-trend trading, especially in bullish markets, can be risky. It’s essential to understand the risks associated with this approach and ensure proper risk management.
• Reversal Indicators: Pay attention to signals like breaks above or below Bollinger Bands, doji candles, and signs of a price slowing down.
• Strategy Enhancement: Combining this counter-trend strategy with other trading approaches can further enhance your trading arsenal and potentially outperform the market.
• Learning Resources: The article suggests referring to a linked trading guide and handbook for step-by-step instructions on implementing the strategy.

Predicting reversals and successfully trading them requires a mix of technical analysis, risk management, and an understanding of market dynamics. While no strategy is foolproof, this counter-trend approach provides a structured framework to identify potential reversal points and capitalize on them effectively. It’s essential for traders to thoroughly understand the strategy, and practice, and adapt it to their trading style and risk tolerance.

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Thanks for reading 🙂
Austin Bouley
CEO & Chief Strategy Officer